In Lithuania, 82.7% of public contracts go to a supplier the buyer has already used. In Switzerland, 17.5%. Same rules, same continent.
SourceEU public award notices
Period2016 to 2023
Awards5,343,805
Countries27, each with 20,000+ awards
A firm deciding whether to bid is really asking one question: does this buyer already have someone? Across 5,343,805 award notices the answer varies more by country than by anything else we measured, and it varies by a factor of four and a half.
The two numbers that decide whether bidding is worth it
Each point is a country. Right means the buyer usually returns to a supplier it already knows. Up means nobody else turned up. The bottom left is where an outsider has a real chance.
The two measures move together, and the countries separate into groups that a bidder should treat completely differently. Where both numbers are high, a procedure is frequently a formality with one participant and a familiar winner. Where both are low, the buyer runs a genuine contest and an unknown supplier is reading the same documents as everyone else.
Portugal sits at 44.9%, in the middle, which is the more interesting position: enough repeat business to show that relationships matter, and enough turnover to show that the door is not shut.
Every country measured
Country
Awards
Repeat supplier
Single bidder
Lithuania
130,505
82.7%
23.6%
Latvia
104,108
81.9%
24.7%
Romania
562,733
79.9%
26.2%
Slovenia
221,281
79.8%
57.2%
Czechia
213,399
77.4%
48.7%
Croatia
73,362
76.8%
27.0%
Bulgaria
145,385
69.5%
35.4%
Estonia
37,970
68.5%
22.8%
Slovakia
32,129
63.7%
28.3%
Hungary
73,140
60.1%
39.7%
Poland
1,044,803
59.7%
51.1%
Ireland
32,138
52.9%
11.1%
United Kingdom
218,454
51.5%
20.6%
Denmark
55,665
50.9%
18.8%
Spain
296,877
45.2%
27.6%
Portugal
50,823
44.9%
28.5%
Greece
60,312
44.3%
40.1%
Finland
64,661
40.1%
12.6%
Germany
531,458
38.9%
23.3%
Sweden
138,738
37.8%
8.8%
Austria
38,690
37.2%
25.7%
Italy
190,702
35.8%
33.0%
Belgium
59,063
35.8%
22.0%
France
824,583
31.7%
18.5%
Netherlands
74,062
30.6%
17.4%
Norway
40,136
27.5%
11.8%
Switzerland
28,628
17.5%
10.4%
How this was measured
An award counts as a repeat when the winning supplier had already won at least one earlier award from the same buyer inside the panel. Buyers and winners are identified by national registration number where the notice carries one and by name where it does not, because identifier coverage varies enormously between countries. Countries with fewer than 20,000 awards are excluded, since the rate is unstable below that.
What this does not show. A repeat award is not evidence of anything improper. A buyer returning to a supplier that performed well is ordinary and often correct. The number measures how often the situation occurs, not why. Name matching will merge two firms that share a name and split one that changed its own, and the error is larger in countries where registration numbers are rarely published. Contract values are not used anywhere on this page, because the source mixes currencies without conversion. The average number of bidders is also left out: a small number of procedures report implausibly large counts and the median would be the honest statistic, which this panel does not support.